Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,186$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(9.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,313.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(56,313.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,453$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,132.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,132.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,964$ on 2020-05-30

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $239,228$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,242.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(228,242.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,125$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(6.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,209.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(27,209.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,727$ on 2020-05-30

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $274,219$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275,822.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(275,822.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38,458$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,084.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(37,084.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $234,574$ on 2020-05-30

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $232,664$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,305.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(226,305.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,340$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,273.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(32,273.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,691$ on 2020-05-30

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $188,752$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(3.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,014.3}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(181,014.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,774$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,728.3}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(27,728.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,592$ on 2020-05-30

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,113$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,927.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 60.0)}}\) (asimptote \(38,927.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,395$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(446 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,299.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,299.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,747$ on 2020-05-30

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,460$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(8.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,988.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(44,988.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,970$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,823.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,823.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,312$ on 2020-05-30

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,929$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(3.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,520.6}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(24,520.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,651$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,611.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,611.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,189$ on 2020-05-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 97%
Andorra recovered 96%
Austria recovered 95%
Croatia recovered 94%
Estonia recovered 87%
Germany recovered 87%
Slovakia recovered 87%
Denmark recovered 81%
Malta recovered 76%
Lithuania recovered 65%
Italy recovered 60%
Czechia recovered 56%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 50%
San Marino recovered 43%
Serbia recovered 42%
Hungary recovered 42%
Romania recovered 37%
Bulgaria recovered 14%
France recovered 7%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,473$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(513 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,458.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,458.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(23.2 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.2}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(105.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-30

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,016$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,854.0}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,854.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(27 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(107.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91$ on 2020-05-30

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $764$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(210 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{753.6}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(753.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(16.7 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 21.0)}}\) (asimptote \(50.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-30

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,685$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,786.8}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,786.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $668$ on 2020-05-30

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{636.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(636.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $497$ on 2020-05-30